物联网与智能家居:物联网与智能家居的关系
信息来源:互联网 发布时间:2025-02-06
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核心摘要:家用物联网指物联网技术在家庭消费领域的应用,主要以家庭为中心向消费者提供智能化的产品与服务,旨
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核心摘要:家用物联网指物联网技术在家庭消费领域的应用,主要以家庭为中心向消费者提供智能化的产品与服务,旨在提升人们居住的体验,创造更加便捷、舒适、安全、节能的家庭生活环境2019年中国家用物联网整体市场规模为3608亿元,同比增长3.3%。
其中,后装、前装、物联网平台及云服务三个细分市场规模分别为3532、25.8与50.2亿元体量上,后装市场依然是家用物联网的重心前装与物联网平台及云服务市场表现较为可观,预计2020年规模分别达37.8亿元与52.3亿元,同比分别增长46.5%与4.2%。
中游的家用物联网终端厂商、前装解决方案商以及物联网云平台厂商是中国家用物联网产业链的核心“掌舵者”家用物联网产业链上游主要为基础的软硬件提供商中游厂商通过线上线下渠道将产品与服务销售至C端用户,也打包自身软硬件能力,销向房地产、运营商以及家装公司等B端客户。
中游厂商的商业模式主要有三类:1)自有品牌模式:家用物联网终端品牌商作为产业链掌舵者,向前打通供应链,向后布局渠道;2)生态模式:主导者建立生态圈,将渠道或者技术能力开放给参与者;3)技术赋能模式分为平台型与全链路型,其中,平台型模式为物联网开放云平台企业以技术赋能开发者、终端厂商与用户;全链路型为中游厂商基于自身软硬件技术实力向产业链上中下游赋能。
家用物联网行业发展背景家用物联网研究范畴界定物联网技术在家庭消费领域的应用,旨在提升居民生活体验国家标准GB/T 33745-2017《物联网 术语》对物联网技术的定义为:“通过感知设备,按照约定协议,连接物、人、系统和信息资源,实现对物理世界和虚拟世界的信息进行处理并作出反应的智能服务系统”。
物联网技术应用于两大主线,分别是消费物联网和产业物联网本报告主要研究范围是消费物联网领域的家用物联网,即物联网技术在家庭消费领域的应用,具体而言,指以家庭为中心向消费者提供智能化的产品与服务,旨在提升人们居住的体验,创造更加便捷、舒适、安全、节能的家庭生活环境。
家用物联网与智能家居的关系家用物联网涉及智能家居后装、前装及物联网云平台家用物联网与智能家居是不同的概念,家用物联网为物联网技术在家庭消费领域的应用,涉及物联网概念中感知层、连接层、平台层与应用层,而智能家居是以住宅为载体,融合物联网、人工智能等技术,通过对家居设备的集中管理实现自主智能、便捷、安全的家庭生活环境。
二者具备目标的一致性,但在产业链构成与市场规模表现上有所区别:1)智能家居的市场规模通常分为智能家居后装市场和前装市场两部分;2)家用物联网相比智能家居概念更大,除包含智能家居的后装和前装市场外,还包括物联网平台及云服务。
3)由于目前物联网平台及云服务收入规模较小,因此量级上,智能家居与家用物联网市场规模相当
行业需求端驱动因素消费结构转型升级,智能生活普惠大众近年来,中国居民人均可支配收入与人均消费支出持续增长,居民生活水平不断提升,居民对便捷、舒适的生活环境的需求日益强劲与2014年相比,2019年人均可支配收入与人均消费支出分别提升52.4%与48.8%。
人均消费支出增长的背后是对产品品质和新科技功能的追求,居民消费由“生活型”逐步向“享受型”转型升级,也意味着家用物联网将不再是高端市场的消费品而是逐步走向大众。
行业供给端驱动因素制造业加速转型升级,企业向产业链高价值端移动家用物联网的最终价值表现形式是通过家用智能终端的串联实现智慧化生活,因此家用物联网智能终端的普及度以及智能化水平影响着家用物联网的价值实现速度。
近年来我国制造业转型升级加快,不断促进生产要素高速流转,助力智能终端普及加快:2012至2020年,我国生产环节关键工序数控化率由35.8%上升至54.2%,而数字化研发设计工具的普及率更是飙升至76.2%,。
意味着从消费、用户端向生产端、管理端的智能化改造加速进行中工业生产的智能化转型升级不仅是适应消费者智慧生活需求做出的改变,更是契合全球价值链分工趋势:企业通过规模化生产、流程化管理提供低成本的标准化产品以保障企业市场规模优势,同时逐步向产业链高附加值的研发设计与营销管理环节转移,以获得用户数据、关键技术等高价值生产要素提升企业利润。
蚂蚁市场乱象犹存,亟待“极致性价比产品”出现家用物联网市场供给端的不少细分领域具备典型蚂蚁市场特征:1)在关键连接协议使用、产品形态与性能、价格尺度上,家用物联网尚未形成统一的技术与行业标准;2)细分市场中,如智能网关、智能传感器、智能灯等市场尚未形成头部品牌效应,市场上白牌混杂、经营渠道分散、产品差异化程度低;3)细分市场无超高性价比产品引爆行业,智能单品的渗透效果较低。
因此,借鉴中国智能手机市场发展脉络,家用物联网市场亟需类似小米手机的“极致性价比产品”出现,打破行业乱象格局,倒逼家用物联网供给端改良生产线,提高产品性能同时降低成本,促进行业建立有序竞争环境
中国家用物联网行业发展历程正在由智能联动向场景化、智能化、系统化的家居生活迈进中国家用物联网行业的发展阶段划分为四个阶段首先是早期的家居自动化阶段,该阶段并非严格意义上的家用物联网时期,其主要基于传统的有线传输布控独立的家电管理系统,仅可实现用电设备的自动化管理;。
第二阶段为智能单品阶段,此时家用物联网开始进入中国市场,但产品多为单点智能,种类有限,且数据无法连通;第三阶段为智能联动阶段,除基于物联网相关的通信协议进行产品布控外,不同品类产品可以互联互通,实现系统化的产品管理。
在系统化基础上,厂商可以打造家庭安防、影音娱乐、照明等基础的物联网家居场景目前,中国家用物联网正处于由智能联动向全屋智能过渡升级的阶段,未来家用物联网将深度融合人工智能、云计算、大数据等技术,打造自主感知、自主反馈以及自主控制的无感交互的生活居住环境。
家用物联网市场规模中国家用物联网行业整体规模及预测后装仍是市场重心,疫情转好后预计增速回归到5%左右2019年中国家用物联网后装、前装和平台及云服务的整体市场规模为3608亿元,同比增长3.3%从体量来看,后装市场依然是家用物联网的绝对重心,也正因疫情拖累了智能家电的增长,导致2020年家用物联网整体规模出现短暂的下降。
前装市场虽然体量最小,但却是家用物联网细分市场中增长最快的领域随着中国经济从疫情中逐渐恢复,家用物联网市场增速将会恢复至5%-6%的水平
中国家用物联网后装市场细分结构智能家电销售受疫情影响较大,智能家用安防市场逆势增长2019年中国家用物联网后装市场规模为3532亿元,比上一年增加2.6%智能家电因涉及冰空洗、电视等高单价的产品,在家用物联网后装市场中的比例达到85%,智能家用安防、智能连接控制和智能照明的占比分别为7.6%、 6.5%、0.9%。
智能家电领域在2020年受疫情影响较大,预计市场规模将缩小6.3%,而智能家用安防在疫情中仍保持了较高的增长水平,预计2020到2022年间的CAGR有望达到13.5%。
家用物联网产业链拆解中国家用物联网产业链结构上游技术蓬勃发展,助力中游打磨产品与服务家用物联网产业链上游主要为基础的软硬件提供商,其中硬件相关的厂商主要由元器件、中间件供应商以及代工厂商组成,他们向中游终端厂商提供原材料采购、产品生产等服务;
软件相关的厂商主要为向中游提供通信、云计算、AI以及大数据等技术的服务商中游是家用物联网的核心掌舵者,也是厂商的主要竞争场,由提供智能家用产品的终端厂商、提供云平台及服务的物联网云平台厂商以及前装市场的解决方案商组成。
中游厂商通过线上线下渠道将产品与服务销售至C端用户,也可打包自身软硬件能力,销向房地产、运营商以及家装公司等,间接触达最终用户群体
中国家用物联网产业图谱
上游:家用物联网厂商生产模式分析智能终端设备商多以ODM/OEM形式实现相关设备规模量产上游生产厂商与中游的合作形式归纳起来有三种,在具体开展生产过程中,中游家用物联网厂商根据自身的情况,综合考虑生产效率、生产成本等因素,选择不同对生产模式,达到利益最大化:
1)OEM合作形式:中游家用物联网厂商参与产品研发环节,生产环节交由OEM厂商执行;2)ODM合作形式,中游家用物联网厂商把产品设计研发与生产环节均交给ODM厂商执行;3)自建工厂:从原材料采购、设计研发、生产环节均由中游家用物联网厂商自身执行。
中游:自有品牌模式分析家用智能终端品牌商向前打通供应链,向后布局渠道自有品牌模式,家用智能终端品牌商作为产业链掌舵者,企业通常会综合考虑自身的实力,对产业链不同环节进行把控采取有利于自身企业的合作模式:
1)对于资金雄厚的成熟厂商,既可选择全产业链掌控,也可选择生产环节外包;2)对于成长阶段的新兴厂商,主要将生产环节外包,集中精力打造销售渠道,集中资金树立品牌价值自有品牌模式下的家用物联网厂商因品牌的加持,始终手握渠道及用户等核心优势。
同时,品牌商也可基于自身硬件技术的能力向上游延展实现供应链打通,同时制造更优性价比的产品来进一步巩固消费者的品牌认知
中游:生态合作模式分析两个核心同时向外开放,逐步突破边界建立更大生态圈在IoT概念还不普及时,家用智能终端品牌商多以品牌作为“护城河”群雄逐鹿,赛道竞争激烈,初创企业难以入局随着在IoT概念逐步普及,加上互联网时代的网络效应下的巨大商业价值,巨头厂商开始思考自身的局限性,以及如何应对IoT时代的变化,因此出现了以小米、华为为代表的生态主导者角色,以及众多的各细分赛道的初创企业的生态参与者角色,主导者通过自身硬件与技术优势,建立生态圈,将渠道或者技术能力开放给参与者,帮助参与者获得技术服务、产品销量、用户需求等方面的收益。
参与者多会根据自身的经营缺陷情况选择进入适合的生态,主导者也因参与者的逐步壮大获得更大的生态圈层,进一步磨练软硬相关的技术、渠道、供应链、管理等能力。
中游:技术赋能模式分析平台型:依托强大流量,聚合开发者与智能终端厂商物联网开放云平台企业以技术多路径赋能开发者、家用物联网终端厂商与用户首先,以开放的平台技术和平台流量吸引开发者与家用物联网终端厂商入驻,通过为其提供多模块的技术解决方案获得相关的服务收益;其次,也可聚合产业链中的家用物联网终端厂商,将自身平台能力与终端厂商产品打包输出至地产商、酒店等B端用户。
尽管,该种模式下,物联网云平台企业间接触达C端用户,但企业可通过C端用户线下体验酒店、智能住宅等B端智能化产品和服务获取相关的用户数据,也可通过C端用户使用终端设备后的云服务获得相关的数据支持此外,云平台企业可将收集到的用户使用习惯、偏好等数据赋能给开发者,帮助其进行算法训练等技术迭代和产品迭代。
中游:技术赋能模式分析全链路型:基于软硬技术向产业链上下游赋能不同于平台赋能模式,全链路技术赋能模式指中游家用物联网厂商基于自身软硬件技术实力向产业链上中下游赋能通常该类型企业具备自主研发设计的产品以及可开放赋能的云平台能力。
其向上输出产品研发设计方案、生产过程关键工序软件等;面向中游终端品牌商,开放云平台能力,提供设备管理、消息推送、云存储等服务;面向下游C端用户通过渠道销售产品获得利润,面向B端客户,可提供定制化开发产品与平台的能力,也可打包自身软硬件能力,通过项目招标采购等形式,向地产商、运营商、家装厂商等B端用户输出解决方案。
该类技术赋能模式由于占据产业链核心,可向上下游打通,可快速敏捷地获得用户使用反馈,技术上能快速反应,加快产品迭代速度
下游:销售渠道与运营策略分析线上、线下渠道协同发展,销售模式满足各类客户需求在下游分发环节,家用物联网产品的销售模式主要有两种,一种是面向家装公司、房地产开发商和电信运营商等客户提供解决方案产品与服务的2B2C模式,另一种是直接面向消费者的2C模式。
在2C的线上模式上,厂商可通过第三方或自营平台以B2C模式销售产品,也可采用电商平台入仓模式,即厂商将产品按折扣价销售给平台,平台自主经营电商平台入仓模式下,厂商借助平台资源引流,降低市场推广成本,同时,平台能够根据市场需求灵活调整销售策略。
在线下,厂商采取传统的直销、分销模式,经由直营店、体验店或经销代理商触达终端用户
下游:中外家用物联网市场的差异国内智能看护潜力大,国外室外安防需求强欧美等海外国家在居住环境、文化观念和基础设施条件上都与中国有着较大的差异这些差异在家用物联网市场上反映为对于产品形态、应用场景和对产品特点偏好的不同。
对于选择出海的中国企业来说,认识到这些差异性并且推出适合海外市场的产品对于业务的开展有着至关重要的作用就欧美市场需求侧而言,家用物联网用户需住宅多为独栋建筑,对室外的安防场景需求强劲;市场极客文化盛行,用户乐于参与到产品特定功能的设计中来。
从供给侧角度看,欧美家用物联网市场多由Google、Amazon等大厂主导,新进入者需要关注消费者已有生态产品的兼容性;此外欧美等物联网基础设施升级迭代缓慢,无线布控技术普及度尚且不足,新进入者也需要根据海外市场的基础设施情况进行新产品开发。
下游:全球家用物联网市场空间分析预计2022年规模超2千亿美元,后装市场平稳增长,前装与物联网平台及云服务市场保持高速增长态势2019年全球家用物联网市场规模达1847.0亿美元,同比增长13.5%,2016-2019年实现22.1%的复合增长率。
其中,后装、前装和物联网平台及云服务三个细分市场规模分别为1432.3亿美元、233.6亿美元和182.1亿美元2020年,受新冠疫情影响,智能大家电市场疲软,造成后装市场交易有所折损,艾瑞判断,随疫情好转,全球经济秩序恢复后,后装市场仍将恢复增长,并以6.5%的复合增长率增长至2022年的1507.7亿美元。
同时,受益于疫情对云服务发展的催化作用以及美国等发达国家新房销售增长,预计物联网平台及云服务与前装市场将分别实现28.5%与11.1%的复合增长率,推动整体规模达2179.2亿美元
下游:中国厂商出海模式分析向产业链高价值端移动,白牌、品牌、技术出海各有优劣中国家用物联网厂商的出海大致经历了四个阶段,从最早期的代工出海到白牌出海,背后是厂商研发能力的升级,现如今已几乎没有纯粹为海外代工的模式,无论中小制造业或较为传统的制造企业都会同时兼顾一定的终端研发设计。
随着中国厂商综合实力的进一步增强,包括海尔、美的等在内的家电巨头以及小米、华为等智能终端厂商,先后开启了国际化品牌征程但品牌出海对厂商知名度和资金实力要求高,当前国际环境不确定性增加,面临的风险挑战更为严峻。
为规避逆全球化、数据隐私保护等风险,厂商也可以选择技术赋能模式与海外品牌方合作。
家用物联网厂商竞争要素家用物联网厂商竞争要素分析产品设计与技术研发是核心,资金与规模支撑价值链循环从家用物联网的价值链上看,厂商在研发、制造和营销环节方面分别有产品设计、技术研发、供应链把控、渠道搭建及品牌塑造五大竞争壁垒。
其中研发壁垒是家用物联网厂商的核心,决定了产品质量和终端用户的使用体验在此基础上,厂商的资金实力和用户规模为价值链的有效循环提供了支撑由于仅有单品不足以形成家用物联网的联动控制,对于家用物联网厂商,还要求具备由多种终端产品形成的生态体系。
生态体系既可来自自有产品矩阵的拓展,也可来自与第三方厂商的跨品牌合作
生命周期视角下厂商的核心竞争要素早期专注产品研发,中期加码品牌建设,后期进行生态扩张家用物联网厂商在不同发展阶段中核心竞争要素的构成存在一定差异以典型创业公司的成长路径为例,在其发展的最早期通常会集中精力打磨出一款能让用户眼前一亮的产品,因而研发环节中的产品设计和技术研发是最为关键的。
在产品不过关的情况下,过早投入资金和人力进行营销推广活动,反而会有损品牌声誉随着终端产品触达的用户规模不断增大,厂商的营业收入提高,融资能力也进一步增强,在此时扩大渠道布局、建立市场团队,有助于形成从产品到销售的良性循环。
当拳头产品获得市场认可后,可继续通过完善产品矩阵、加强外部合作提高用户的使用黏性,发挥家用物联网生态的网络效应
不同商业模式下厂商的竞争要素构成各模式竞争壁垒不同,厂商应视自身优势选择商业模式自有品牌、生态合作和技术赋能三类模式对家用物联网厂商能力的要求各不相同整体来看,生态合作模式中主导方的综合能力壁垒最高,既需要有至少一款现象级产品和足够的品牌声量,还需要能够搭建优质的物联网云平台,吸引尽可能多的合作伙伴,而对于新兴的创业公司则可以借力头部厂商的生态,先行打磨产品,待综合能力更强时发展为独立的品牌。
对于技术解决方案商来说,因不负责下游营销品牌,其核心竞争壁垒在于终端和云平台的研发设计,以及通过供应链把控向品牌方输出高性价的产品,当资金实力及用户规模增长后,也有机会发展为自有品牌
获取完整版报告,在”智家头条“公众号后台回复”家用物联网“,或点击底部”阅读原文“立即查看!链接: 提取码: vy4m 169. Dont let yesterday use up too much of today. 别留念昨天了,把握好今天吧。
(Will Rogers) 170. If you are not brave enough, no one will back you up. 你不勇敢,没人替你坚强171. If you dont build your dream, someone will hire you to build theirs. 如果你没有梦想,那么你只能为别人的梦想打工。
172. Beauty is all around, if you 在意的那些结根本算不了什么183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。
《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧,管它会怎样185. A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow. 今天的好计划胜过明天的完美计划。
186. Nothing is impossible, the word itself says Im possible! 一切皆有可能!“不可能”的意思是:“不,可能”(奥黛丽·赫本) 187. Life isnt fair, but no matter your circumstances, you have to give it your all. 生活是不公平的,不管你的境遇如何,你只能全力以赴。
188. No matter how hard it is, just keep going because you only fail when you give up. 无论多么艰难,都要继续前进,因为只有你放弃的那一刻,你才输了。
When Paul Jobs was mustered out of the Coast Guard after World War II, he made a wager with his crewmates. They had arrived in San Francisco, where their ship was decommissioned, and Paul bet that he would find himself a wife within two weeks. He was a taut, tattooed engine mechanic, six feet tall, with a passing resemblance to James Dean. But it wasn’t his looks that got him a date with Clara Hagopian, a sweet-humored daughter of Armenian immigrants. It was the fact that he and his friends had a car, unlike the group she had originally planned to go out with that evening. Ten days later, in March 1946, Paul got engaged to Clara and won his wager. It would turn out to be a happy marriage, one that lasted until death parted them more than forty years later. Paul Reinhold Jobs had been raised on a dairy farm in Germantown, Wisconsin. Even though his father was an alcoholic and sometimes abusive, Paul ended up with a gentle and calm disposition under his leathery exterior. After dropping out of high mechanic until, at age nineteen, he joined the Coast Guard, even though he didn’t know how to swim. He was deployed on the USS General M. C. Meigs and spent much of the war ferrying troops to Italy for General Patton. His talent as a machinist and fireman earned him commendations, but he occasionally found himself in minor trouble and never rose above the rank of seaman. Clara was born in New Jersey, where her parents had landed after fleeing the Turks in Armenia, and they moved to the Mission District of San Francisco when she was a child. She had a secret that she rarely mentioned to anyone: She had been married before, but her husband had been killed in the war. So when she met Paul Jobs on that first date, she was primed to start a new life. Clara, however, loved San Francisco, and in 1952 she convinced her husband to move back there. They got an apartment in the Sunset District facing the Pacific, just south of Golden Gate Park, and he took a job working for a finance company as a “repo man,” picking the locks of cars whose owners hadn’t paid their loans and repossessing them. He also bought, repaired, and sold some of the cars, making a decent enough living in the process. There was, however, something missing in their lives. They wanted children, but Clara had suffered an ectopic pregnancy, in which the fertilized egg was implanted in a fallopian tube rather than the uterus, and she had been unable to have any. So by 1955, after nine years of marriage, they were looking to adopt a child. Like Paul Jobs, Joanne Schieble was from a rural Wisconsin family of German heritage. Her father, Arthur Schieble, had immigrated to the outskirts of Green Bay, where he and his wife owned a mink farm and dabbled successfully in various other businesses, including real estate and photoengraving. He was very strict, especially regarding his daughter’s relationships, and he had strongly disapproved of her first love, an artist who was not a Catholic. Thus it was no surprise that he threatened to cut Joanne off completely when, as a graduate student at the University of Wisconsin, she fell in love with Abdulfattah “John” Jandali, a Muslim teaching assistant from Syria. Jandali was the youngest of nine children in a prominent Syrian family. His father owned oil refineries and multiple other businesses, with large holdings in Damascus and Homs, and at one point pretty much controlled the price of wheat in the region. His mother, he later said, was a “traditional Muslim woman” who was a “conservative, obedient housewife.” Like the Schieble family, the Jandalis put a premium on education. Abdulfattah was sent to a Jesuit boarding school, even though he was Muslim, and he got an undergraduate degree at the American University in Beirut before entering the University of Wisconsin to pursue a doctoral degree in political science. In the summer of 1954, Joanne went with Abdulfattah to Syria. They spent two months in Homs, where she learned from his family to cook Syrian dishes. When they returned to Wisconsin she discovered that she was pregnant. They were both twenty-three, but they decided not to get married. Her father was dying at the time, and he had threatened to disown her if she wed Abdulfattah. Nor was abortion an easy option in a small Catholic community. So in early 1955, Joanne traveled to San Francisco, where she was taken into the care of a kindly doctor who sheltered unwed mothers, delivered their babies, and quietly arranged closed adoptions. Joanne had one requirement: Her child must be adopted by college graduates. So the doctor arranged for the baby to be placed with a lawyer and his wife. But when a boy was born—on February 24, 1955—the designated couple decided that they wanted a girl and backed out. Thus it was that the boy became the son not of a lawyer but of a high school dropout with a passion for mechanics and his salt-of-the-earth wife who was working as a bookkeeper. Paul and Clara named their new baby Steven Paul Jobs. When Joanne found out that her baby had been placed with a couple who had not even graduated from high school, she refused to sign the adoption papers. The standoff lasted weeks, even after the baby had settled into the Jobs household. Eventually Joanne relented, with the stipulation that the couple promise—indeed sign a pledge—to fund a savings account to pay for the boy’s college education. There was another reason that Joanne was balky about signing the adoption papers. Her father was about to die, and she planned to marry Jandali soon after. She held out hope, she would later tell family members, sometimes tearing up at the memory, that once they were married, she could get their 别让梦想只停留在梦里。
181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧,见的世面多了,你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。
183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧,管它会怎样。
baby boy back. Arthur Schieble died in August 1955, after the adoption was finalized. Just after Christmas that year, Joanne and Abdulfattah were married in St. Philip the Apostle Catholic Church in Green Bay. He got his PhD in international politics the next year, and then they had another child, a girl named Mona. After she and Jandali divorced in 1962, Joanne embarked on a dreamy and peripatetic life that her daughter, who grew up to become the acclaimed novelist Mona Simpson, would capture in her book Anywhere but Here. Because Steve’s adoption had been closed, it would be twenty years before they would all find each other. Steve Jobs knew from an early age that he was adopted. “My parents were very open with me about that,” he recalled. He had a vivid memory of sitting on the lawn of his house, when he was six or seven years old, telling the girl who lived across the street. “So does that mean your real parents didn’t want you?” the girl asked. “Lightning bolts went off in my head,” according to Jobs. “I remember running into the house, crying. And my parents said, ‘No, you have to understand.’ They were very serious and looked me straight in the eye. They said, ‘We specifically picked you out.’ Both of my parents said that and repeated it slowly for me. And they put an emphasis on every word in that sentence.” Abandoned. Chosen. Special. Those concepts became part of who Jobs was and how he regarded himself. His closest friends think that the knowledge that he was given up at birth left some scars. “I think his desire for complete control of whatever he makes derives directly from his personality and the fact that he was abandoned at birth,” said one longtime colleague, Del Yocam. “He wants to control his environment, and he sees the product as an extension of himself.” Greg Calhoun, who became close to Jobs right after college, saw another effect. “Steve talked to me a lot about being abandoned and the pain that caused,” he said. “It made him independent. He followed the beat of a different drummer, and that came from being in a different world than he was born into.” Later in life, when he was the same age his biological father had been when he abandoned him, Jobs would father and abandon a child of his own. (He eventually took responsibility for her.) Chrisann Brennan, the mother of that child, said that being put up for adoption left Jobs “full of broken glass,” and it helps to explain some of his behavior. “He who is abandoned is an abandoner,” she said. Andy Hertzfeld, who worked with Jobs at Apple in the early 1980s, is among the few who remained close to both Brennan and Jobs. “The key question about Steve is why he can’t control himself at times from being so reflexively cruel and harmful to some people,” he said. “That goes back to being abandoned at birth. The real underlying problem was the theme of abandonment in Steve’s life.” Jobs dismissed this. “There’s some notion that because I was abandoned, I worked very hard so I could do well and make my parents wish they had me back, or some such nonsense, but that’s ridiculous,” he insisted. “Knowing I was adopted may have made me feel more independent, but I have never felt abandoned. I’ve always felt special. My parents made me feel special.” He would later bristle whenever anyone referred to Paul and Clara Jobs as his “adoptive” parents or implied that they were not his “real” parents. “They were my parents 1,000%,” he said. When speaking about his biological parents, on the other hand, he was curt: “They were my sperm and egg bank. That’s not harsh, it’s just the way it was, a sperm bank thing, nothing more.” Silicon Valley The childhood that Paul and Clara Jobs created for their new son was, in many ways, a stereotype of the late 1950s. When Steve was two they adopted a girl they named Patty, and three years later they moved to a tract house in the suburbs. The finance company where Paul worked as a repo man, CIT, had transferred him down to its Palo Alto office, but he could not afford to live there, so they landed in a subdivision in Mountain View, a less expensive town just to the south. There Paul tried to pass along his love of mechanics and cars. “Steve, this is your workbench now,” he said as he marked off a section of the table in their garage. Jobs remembered being impressed by his father’s focus on craftsmanship. “I thought my dad’s sense of design was pretty good,” he said, “because he knew how to build anything. If we needed a cabinet, he would build it. When he built our fence, he gave me a hammer so I could work with him.” Fifty years later the fence still surrounds the back and side yards of the house in Mountain View. As Jobs showed it off to me, he caressed the stockade panels and recalled a lesson that his father implanted deeply in him. It was important, his father said, to craft the backs of cabinets and fences properly, even though they were hidden. “He loved doing things right. He even cared about the look of the parts you couldn’t see.” His father continued to refurbish and resell used cars, and he festooned the garage with pictures of his favorites. He would point out the detailing of the design to his son: the lines, the vents, the chrome, the trim of the seats. After work each day, he would change into his dungarees and retreat to the garage, often with Steve tagging along. “I figured I could get him nailed down with a little mechanical ability, but he really wasn’t interested in getting his hands dirty,” Paul later recalled. “He never really cared too much about m189. It requires hard work to give off an appearance of effortlessness. 你必须十分努力,才能看起来毫不费力。
190. Life is like riding a bicycle.To keep your balance,you must keep moving. 人生就像骑单车,只有不断前进,才能保持平衡(爱因斯坦) 191. Be thankful for what you have.Youll end up having more. 拥有一颗感恩的心,最终你会得到更多。
192. Beauty is how you feel inside, and it reflects in your eyes. 美是一种内心的感觉,并反映在你的眼睛里(索菲亚·罗兰) 193. Friendship doubles your joys, and divides your sorrows. 朋友的作用,就是让你快乐加倍,痛苦减半。
194. When you long for something sincerely, the whole world will help you. 当你真心渴望某样东西时,整个宇宙都会来帮忙echanical things.” “I wasn’t that into fixing cars,” Jobs admitted. “But I was eager to hang out with my dad.” Even as he was growing more aware that he had been adopted, he was becoming more attached to his father. One day when he was about eight, he discovered a photograph of his father from his time in the Coast Guard. “He’s in the engine room, and he’s got his shirt off and looks like James Dean. It was one of those Oh wow moments for a kid. Wow, oooh, my parents were actually once very young and really good-looking.” Through cars, his father gave Steve his first exposure to electronics. “My dad did not have a deep understanding of electronics, but he’d encountered it a lot in automobiles and other things he would fix. He showed me the rudiments of electronics, and I got very interested in that.” Even more interesting were the trips to scavenge for parts. “Every weekend, there’d be a junkyard trip. We’d be looking for a generator, a carburetor, all sorts of components.” He remembered watching his father negotiate at the counter. “He was a good bargainer, because he knew better than the guys at the counter what the parts should cost.” This helped fulfill the pledge his parents made when he was adopted. “My college fund came from my dad paying $50 for a Ford Falcon or some other beat-up car that didn’t run, working on it for a few weeks, and selling it for $250—and not telling the IRS.” The Jobses’ house and the others in their neighborhood were built by the real estate developer Joseph Eichler, whose company spawned more than eleven thousand homes in various California subdivisions between 1950 and 1974. Inspired by Frank Lloyd Wright’s vision of simple modern homes for the American “everyman,” Eichler built inexpensive houses that featured floor-to-ceiling glass walls, open floor plans, exposed post-and-beam construction, concrete slab floors, and lots of sliding glass doors. “Eichler did a great thing,” Jobs said on one of our walks around the neighborhood. “His houses were smart and cheap and good. They brought clean design and simple taste to lower-income people. They had awesome little features, like radiant heating in the floors. You put carpet on them, and we had nice toasty floors when we were kids.” Jobs said that his appreciation for Eichler homes instilled in him a passion for making nicely designed products for the mass market. “I love it when you can bring really great design and simple capability to something that doesn’t cost much,” he said as he pointed out the clean elegance of the houses. “It was the original vision for Apple. That’s what we tried to do with the first Mac. That’s what we did with the iPod.” Across the street from the Jobs family lived a man who had become successful as a real estate agent. “He wasn’t that bright,” Jobs recalled, “but he seemed to be making a fortune. So my dad thought, ‘I can do that.’ He worked so hard, I remember. He took these night classes, passed the license test, and got into real estate. Then the bottom fell out of the market.” As a result, the family found itself financially strapped for a year or so while Steve was in elementary school. His mother took a job as a bookkeeper for Varian Associates, a company that made scientific instruments, and they took out a second mortgage. One day his fourth-grade teacher asked him, “What is it you don’t understand about the universe?” Jobs replied, “I don’t understand why all of a sudden my dad is so broke.” He was proud that his father never adopted a servile attitude or slick style that may have made him a better salesman. “You had to suck up to people to sell real estate, and he wasn’t good at that and it wasn’t in his nature. I admired him for that.” Paul Jobs went back to being a mechanic. His father was calm and gentle, traits that his son later praised more than emulated. He was also resolute. Jobs described one exampl What made the neighborhood different from the thousands of other spindly-tree subdivisions across America was that even the ne’er-do-wells tended to be engineers. “When we moved here, there were apricot and plum orchards on all of these corners,” Jobs recalled. “But it was beginning to boom because of military investment.” He soaked up the history of the valley and developed a yearning to play his own role. Edwin Land of Polaroid later told him about being asked by Eisenhower to help build the U-2 spy plane cameras to see how real the Soviet threat was. The film was dropped in canisters and returned to the NASA Ames Research Center in Sunnyvale, not far from where Jobs lived. “The first computer terminal I ever saw was when my dad brought me to the Ames Center,” he said. “I fell totally in love with it.” Other defense contractors sprouted nearby during the 1950s. The Lockheed Missiles and Space Division, which built submarine-launched ballistic missiles, was founded in 1956 next to the NASA Center; by the time Jobs moved to the area four years later, it employed twenty thousand people. A few hundred yards away, Westinghouse built facilities that produced tubes and electrical transformers for the missile systems. “You had all these military companies on the cutting edge,” he recalled. “It was mysterious and high-tech and made living here very exciting.” In the wake of the defense industries there arose a booming economy based on technology. Its roots stretched back to 1938, when David Packard and his new wife moved into a house in Palo Alto that had a shed where his friend Bill Hewlett was soon ensconced. The house had a garage—an appendage that would prove both useful and iconic in the valley—in which they tinkered around until they had their first product, an audio oscillator. By the 1950s, Hewlett-Packard was a fast-growing company making technical instruments. Fortunately there was a place nearby for entrepreneurs who had outgrown their garages. In a move that would help transform the area into the cradle of the tech revolution, Stanford University’s dean of engineering, Frederick Terman, created a seven-hundred-acre industrial park on university land for private companies that could commercialize the ideas of his students. Its first tenant was Varian Associates, where Clara Jobs worked. “Terman came up with this great idea that did more than anything to cause the tech industry to grow up here,” Jobs said. By the time Jobs was ten, HP had nine thousand employees and was the blue-chip company where every engineer seeking financial stability wanted to work. The most important technology for the region’s growth was, of course, the semiconductor. William Shockley, who had been one of the inventors of the transistor at Bell Labs in New Jersey, moved out to Mountain View and, in 1956, started a company to build transistors using silicon rather than the more expensive germanium that was then commonly used. But Shockley became increasingly erratic and abandoned his silicon transistor project, which led eight of his engineers—most notably Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore—to break away to form Fairchild Semiconductor. That company grew to twelve thousand employees, but it fragmented in 1968, when Noyce lost a power struggle to become CEO. He took Gordon Moore and founded a company that they called Integrated Electronics Corporation, which they soon smartly abbreviated to Intel. Their third employee was Andrew Grove, who later would grow the company by shifting its focus from memory chips to microprocessors. Within a few years there would be more than fifty companies in the area making semiconductors. The exponential growth of this industry was correlated with the phenomenon famously discovered by Moore, who in 1965 drew a graph of the speed of integrated circuits, based on the number of transistors that could be placed on a chip, and showed that it doubled about every two years, a trajectory that could be expected to continue. This was reaffirmed in 1971, when Intel was able to etch a complete central processing unit onto one chip, the Intel 4004, tronic amplifier. “So I raced home, and I told my dad that he was wrong.” “No, it needs an amplifier,” his father assured him. When Steve protested otherwise, his father said he was crazy. “It can’t work without an amplifier. There’s some trick.” “I kept saying no to my dad, telling him he had to see it, and finally he actually walked down with me and saw it. And he said, ‘Well I’ll be a bat out of hell.’” Jobs recalled the incident vividly because it was his first realization that his father did not know everything. Then a more disconcerting discovery began to dawn on him: He was smarter than his parents. He had always admired his father’s competence and savvy. “He was not an educated man, but I had always thought he was pretty damn smart. He didn’t read much, but he could do a lot. Almost everything mechanical, he could figure it out.” Yet the carbon microphone incident, Jobs said, began a jarring process of realizing that he was in fact more clever and quick than his parents. “It was a very big moment that’s burned into my mind. When I realized that I was smarter than my parents, I felt tremendous shame for having thought that. I will never forget that moment.” This discovery, he later told friends, along with the fact that he was adopted, made him feel apart—detached and separate—from both his family and the world. Another layer of awareness occurred soon after. Not only did he discover that he was brighter than his parents, but he discovered that they knew this. Paul and Clara Jobs were loving parents, and they were willing to adapt their lives to suit a son who was very smart—and also willful. They would go to great lengths to accommodate him. And soon Steve discovered this fact as well. “Both my parents got me. They felt a lot of responsibility once they sensed that I was special. They found ways to keep feeding me stuff and putting me in better schools. They were willing to defer to my needs.” So he grew up not only with a sense of having once been abandoned, but also with a sense that he was special. In his own mind, that was more important in the formation of his personality. School Even before Jobs started elementary school, his mother had taught him how to read. This, however, led to some problems once he got to school. “I was kind of bored for the first few years 在这种情况下,俄罗斯和欧洲正兴建一条新的天然气运输管道,这就是北溪-2项目,这个项目全长1224公里,从俄罗斯穿过波罗的海,将天然气运输到德国和其它国家,欧洲很多国家都参与了这条管道项目的建设,毕竟这是欧洲国家的民生工程。
一旦这条管道建设完成,可以为欧洲提供每年330亿立方米的天然气,可以满足欧洲对天然气十分之一的需求,这可是非常大的它是气态行星没有实体表面,由90%的氢和10%的氦(原子数之比, 75/25%的质量比)及微量的甲烷、水、氨水和“石头”组成。
这与形成整个太阳系的原始的太阳系星云的组成十分相似木星可能有一个石质的内核,相当于10-15个地球的质量内核上则是大部分的行星物质集结地,以液态氢的形式存在液态金属氢由离子化的质子与电子组成(类似于太阳的内部,不过温度低多了)。
木星共有67颗木卫按距离木星中心由近及远的次序为:木卫十六、木卫十四、木卫五、木卫十五、木卫一、木卫二、木卫三、木卫四、木卫十三、木卫六、木卫十、木卫七、木卫十二、木卫十一、木卫八和木卫九[46] 水星是最接近太阳的行星。
水星的半径约为2440公里,在八大行星中是最小的水星昼夜温差极大,白天摄氏 430 度,晚上约可达零下170 度,是太阳系八大行星中温差最大的一个行星[47] 水星的外大气层非常稀薄,是由水星表面和太阳风中的原子和离子构成。
[48] 科学家确认水星表面含有丰富的碳,认为碳是水星表面呈黑色的原因,水星表面的岩石是由低重量百分比的石墨碳构成[49] “好奇号”火星探测器在火星表面采集样本 “好奇号”火星探测器在火星表面采集样本 [50] 火星是地球的近邻,是太阳系由内往外数第四颗行星。
直径6794km,体积为地球的15%,质量为地球的11%火星表面是一个荒凉的世界,空气中二氧化碳占了95%火星大气十分稀薄,密度还不到地球大气的1%,因而根本无法保存热量这导致火星表面温度极低,很少超过0℃,在夜晚,最低温度则可达到-123℃。
火星被称为红色的行星,这是因为它表面布满了氧化物,因而呈现出铁锈红色其表面的大部分地区都是含有大量的红色氧化物的大沙漠,还有赭色的砾石地和凝固的熔岩流火星上常常有猛烈的大风,大风扬起沙尘能形成可以覆盖火星全球的特大型沙尘暴。
每次沙尘暴可持续数个星期火星两极的冰冠和火星大气中含有水份从火星表面获得的探测数据证明,在远古时期八颗行星,直径49532千米海王星绕太阳运转的轨道半径为45亿千米,公转一周需要165年海王星的直径和天王星类似,质量比天王星略大一些。
海王星和天王星的主要大气成分都是氢和氦,内部结构也极为相近,所以说海王星与天王星是一对孪生兄弟[55] 海王星有太阳系最强烈的风,测量到的时速高达2100公里海王星云顶的温度是-218 °C,是太阳系最冷的地区之一。
海王星核心的温度约为7000 °C,可以和太阳的表面比较海王星在1846年9月23日被发现,是唯一利用数学预测而非有计划的观测发现的行星[56] 冥王星,位于海王星以外的柯伊伯带内侧,是柯伊伯带中已知的最大天体。
[57] 直径约为2370±20km,是地球直径的18.5%[58] 2006年8月24日,国际天文学联合会大会24日投票决定,不再将传统九大行星之一的冥王星视为行星,而将其列入“矮行星”大会通过的决议规定,“行星”指的是围绕太阳运转、自身引力足以克服其刚体力而使天体呈圆球状、能够清除其轨道附近其他物体的天体。
在太阳系传统的“九大行星”中,只有水星、金星、地球、火星、木星、土星、天王星和海王星符合这些要求冥王星由于其轨道与海王星的轨道相交,不符合新的行星定义,因此被自动降级为“矮行星”[59] 冥王星的表面温度大概在-238到-228℃之间。
冥王星的成份由70%岩石和30%冰水混合而成的地表上光亮的部分可能覆盖着一些固体氮以及少量 卫星拍月球经过地球,可见清晰月球背面 卫星拍月球经过地球,可见清晰月球背面 [60] 的固体甲烷和一氧化碳,冥王星表面的黑暗部分可能是一些基本的有机物质或是由宇宙射线引发的光化学反应。
冥王星的大气层主要由氮和少量的一氧化碳及甲烷组成大气极其稀薄,地面压强只有少量微帕[61] 地球是离太阳第三颗行星,是我们人类的家乡,尽管地球是太阳系中一颗普通的行星,但它在许多方面都是独一无二的比如,它是太阳系中唯一一颗面积大部分被水覆盖的行星,也是目前所知唯一一颗有生命存在的星球。
质量M=5.9742 ×10^24 公斤,表面温度:t = - 30 ~ +45[62] 英国科研人员在《天体生物学》杂志上报告说,如果没有小行星撞击等可能剧烈改变环境的事件发生,地球适宜人类居住的时间还剩约17.5亿年,不过人为造成的气候变化可能缩短这一时间。
[63] 彗星是由灰尘和冰块组成的太阳系中的一类小天体,绕日运动[64] 科学家使用探测器对彗星的化学遗留物进行分析,发现其主要成份为氨、甲烷、硫化氢、氰化氢和甲醛科学家得出结论称,彗星的气味闻起来像是臭鸡蛋、马尿、酒精和苦杏仁的气味综合。
[65-66] “67P/楚留莫夫-格拉希门克”彗星 “67P/楚留莫夫-格拉希门克”彗星 [67] 在太阳系的周围还包裹着一个庞大的“奥尔特云”星云内分布着不计其数的冰块、雪团和碎石其中的某些会受太阳引力影响飞入内太阳系,这学说,在原有的轨道(或称小天体轨道)上又增加了更多的天体运行轨道。
这一模式称每颗行星都沿着一个小轨道作圆周运行,而小轨道又沿着该行星的大轨道绕地球作圆周运动几百年之后,这一模式的漏洞越来越明显科学家们又在这个模式上增加了许多轨道,行星就这样沿着一道又一道的轨道作圆周运动。
哥白尼想用“现代”(16世纪的)技术来改进托勒密的测量结果,以期取消一些小轨道在长达近20年的时间里,哥白尼不辞辛劳日夜测量行星的位置,但其测量获得的结果仍然与托勒密的天体运行模式没有多少差别哥白尼想知道在另一个运行着的行星上观察这些行星的运行情况会是什么样的。
基于这种设想,哥白尼萌发了一个念头:假如地球在运行中,那么这些行星的运行看上去会是什么情况呢?这一设想在他脑海里变得清晰起来了一年里,哥白尼在不同的时间、不同的距离从地球上观察行星,每一个行星的情况都不相同,这是他意识到地球不可能位于星星轨道的中心。
经过20年的观测,哥白尼发现唯独太阳的周年变化不明显这意味着地球和太阳的距离始终没有改变如果地球不是宇宙的中心,那么宇宙的中心就是太阳的发现才使牛顿有能力确定运动定律和万有引力定律哥白尼的日心宇宙体系既然是时代的产物,它就不能不受到时代的限制。
反对神学的不彻底性,同时表现在哥白尼的某些观点上,他的体系是存在缺陷的哥白尼所指的宇宙是局限在一个小的范围内的,具体来说,他的宇宙结构就是今天我们所熟知的太阳系,即以太阳为中心的天体系统宇宙既然有它的中心,就必须有它的边界,哥白尼虽然否定了托勒玫的“九重天”,但他却保留了一层恒星天,尽管他回避了宇宙是否有限这个问题,但实际上他是相信恒星天球是宇宙的“外壳”,他仍然相信天体只能按照所谓完美的圆形轨道运动,所以哥白尼的宇宙体系,仍然包含着不动的中心天体。
但是作为近代自然科学的奠基人,哥白尼的历史功绩是伟大的确认地球不是宇宙的中心,而是行星之一,从而掀起了一场天文学上根本性的革命,是人类探求客观真理道路上的里程碑哥白尼的伟大成就,不仅铺平了通向近代天文学的道路,而且开创了整个自然界科学向前迈进的新时代。
从哥白尼时代起,脱离教会束缚的自然科学和哲学开始获得飞跃的发展哥白尼的科学成就,是他所处时代的产物,又转过来推动了时代的发展顺应时代变化 十五、六世纪的欧洲,正是从封建社会向资本主义社会转变的关键时期,在这一二百年间,社会发生了巨大的变化。
14世纪以前的欧洲,到处是四分五裂的小城邦后来,随着城市工商业的兴起,特别是采矿和冶金业的发展,涌现了许多新兴的大城市,小城邦有了联合起来组成国家的趋势到 15世纪末叶,在许多国家里都出现了基本上是中央集权的君主政体。
当时的波兰不仅有像克拉科夫、波兹南这样的大城市,也有许多手工业兴盛的城
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